With a superior goal difference — 19 more than Rangers — Celtic now need just three points from their remaining three league games to virtually seal the Premiership.

This would crown a remarkable debut season for manager Ange Postecoglou after inheriting a club in turmoil last summer, and also confirm their qualification for 2022-23’s Champions League group stages. Automatic qualification for the Premiership champions is now certain after UEFA upheld their ban on Russian federation clubs for next season on Monday evening.

Villarreal winning the Champions League was previously the only variable in the UEFA coefficient arithmetic that could have seen Celtic demoted to the qualification phase instead — if they win the league — but the decision on Russian clubs makes that moot.

It would mark the club’s return to Europe’s premier club competition for the first time in five years — their longest absence since they first dallied with the European Cup’s rebranding under Martin O’Neill in 2001-02. While fans would be hoping for more memorable European nights at Celtic Park, qualification for the group stages also delivers Celtic several substantial revenue streams. Perhaps describing this money as “transformative” would be a tad dramatic, but it certainly positions the club on a strong financial footing next season and beyond.

One of the reasons why it is not necessarily transformative is that Celtic’s finances were already relatively healthy despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is largely because the club controversially kept season tickets at full price for the 2020-21 season, despite fans not being allowed inside Celtic Park, generating £21 million of match-day income.

Their 2020-21 annual accounts also registered significant levels of merchandising income (£22.6 million), thanks to the increased partnership value from their then-new kit deal with Adidas — and presumably also because fans did their part even further by buying merchandise to compensate for not being able to watch their team live. They recorded a pre-tax loss of £11.5 million for the COVID-19-hit season, which was not as alarming as many anticipated.

Their interim report for 2021-22 in February was similarly encouraging, with revenues increasing in 2020 by 29.9 per cent to £52.9 million, profits of player trading worth £25.8 million after Odsonne Edouard’s transfer to Crystal Palace and Kristoffer Ajer’s to Brentford, and net sum cash in the bank of £25.6 million. The second half of each season tends to be much less lucrative with fewer matches and no new player sales, but the outlook was still relatively rosy.

Kieran Maguire, an academic and author who specialises in football finance, explains that Celtic have a “solid cost of control”, which is effectively how sustainability is measured by the percentage of a club’s total income levelled against their wage bill. Some clubs have wage upkeep greater than their total revenue, including many in the English lower leagues, but a wage bill around 75 per cent suggests stability — and traditionally this is around where Celtic hover.

“I know their wages was 85 per cent of their income in 2021 but that was hit by COVID,” Maguire explains to The Athletic. “In general they have good cost control, and their model is geared towards breaking even regardless of which competitions they’re in. The wage structure is heavily incentivised, so if they do qualify for the Champions League expect an uplift in wages.”

Maguire estimates that COVID-19 probably cost Celtic in the region of £20-25 million in 2020-21. However, Champions League money can “effectively reverse that”.

The financial figures for next season’s Champions League involvement are not yet confirmed, but based on the figures for 2021-22, qualification for the group stages will immediately net Celtic around £12.78 million as a base payment. That is before including broadcast revenue, gate receipts and match-day income from three home games — plus whatever performance bonuses Celtic might achieve, which were £2.26 million for a win at the group stage and £750,000 for a draw this season.

It is a major difference from the revenues generated by their Europa League involvements in recent years. For example, they earned a base payment of £3.05 million for reaching the Europa League group stage this season. “The way it effectively works is that for every £1 is in the Europa League, there is £5 in the Champions League,” Maguire continues. “Although Celtic being where they are in the seedings, you’re likely not going to have as many performance bonuses as in the Europa.

The UEFA Executive Committee has today declared the bid submitted by the Football Union of Russia to host UEFA EURO 2028 or UEFA EURO 2032 as ineligible.

This is one of several decisions relating to the on-going suspension of Russian teams and clubs from UEFA competitions.

“If we go back to 2018, Celtic generated £40 million from broadcast that season. That halved by the time we got to 2020, so the scope to bounce back is large. Once you start to factor in UEFA coefficient, the market pool and BT paying more for the rights than any other broadcaster in Europe, all that benefits Scottish clubs because of the way money is allocated in silos. You can easily double your broadcast revenues compared to the Europa League.”

The “market pool” is a UEFA budget whose distribution across the 32 Champions League participants is determined by the value of the television market in each nation. Again, its worth is not yet confirmed for 2022-23, but this season’s was around £244.62 million. It is partly affected by coefficients, of which Scotland are currently 9th in UEFA’s rankings for 2021-22, and it will positively influence Celtic’s slice of the pie.

But what will possibly inflate Celtic’s share even further is that BT Sport will be covering them in the UK. “They will be well-compensated for by having a big broadcaster to refer to,” Maguire adds. “Celtic benefit from BT, in my opinion, overpaying for the Champions League rights because the viewing figures are solid but not spectacular.”

Then there is match-day income, and how eager fans are to dine at Europe’s top table again. Even if history follows the pattern of 2010s Champions League campaigns and there are one or two hammerings from the continent’s best sides, there is the perpetual possibility of something special happening, which raises pulses. The commercial department will see this as a tremendous opportunity to generate more revenue through the three-match package for season ticket holders.

“Let’s say Celtic are third seeds, you could end up with Bayern Munich and an English team. That is a huge attraction,” Maguire attests. “Through the prices you can charge, we’re probably talking in the region of £9-10 million pounds extra income through those three match days.”

On top of the guaranteed £12.8 million from immediate qualification and Maguire’s estimates for match-day income, he also includes an estimate of £20 million in broadcasting revenue. Cumulatively, that is potentially at least £40 million from Celtic’s Champions League involvement next season — before even factoring in whatever performance bonuses they might earn.

But will qualification influence Celtic’s recruitment plans?

It will, but probably not significantly. They will have planned a Champions League budget and a Europa League budget ahead of this transfer window, each dictating the profile of player to target, and qualification might mean they are more confident in signing two or three players for similar fees to those paid for Kyogo Furuhashi (£5 million) and Carl Starfelt (£4.5 million) last summer. But it is unlikely it will galvanise them into breaking their transfer record set by the £9-million purchase of Edouard from Paris Saint-Germain in 2018, or spending in excess of £30 million across six players.

Historically under previous CEO Peter Lawwell there was negligible change in budgets after Champions League qualification, or in anticipation of it. The last time Celtic qualified automatically to the group stages for example, in 2008-09, Celtic spent roughly £10 million on 11 players.

With new CEO Michael Nicholson following Dominic McKay’s brief tenure last summer, this is unlikely to change too drastically. The club has spent around £25 million on 16 players over the previous two transfer windows to aid Postecoglou’s project, though whether spending in a similar way would allow Celtic to compete in the Champions League group stage remains to be seen.

Where it might have a bigger difference is player retention because Celtic’s best players will be keen to test themselves in club football’s most prestigious competition, and because the financial windfall from qualification eliminates any need to sell an asset to balance the books. “Celtic’s strategy is to identify talent with the view to having one big sale a year,” Maguire says. “The advantage of being in the Champions League is there is no pressure to sell. It becomes a choice.”

A final benefit to automatic Champions League qualification, compounded by there being no summer international tournament, is that the players and staff will not have to endure the briefest of post-seasons, before an intensive pre-season, swiftly followed by high-pressure European qualifiers.

These players have consistently performed to a high level this year, but it has been an incredibly long and draining campaign dating back to mid-July. They could do with a breather before starting afresh, with Champions League football to look forward to next season if the title is sealed.

(Top photo: Craig Williamson/SNS Group via Getty Images)